It felt horrible to stick my neck out and say that the selloff's wrong and the "go into cash" call seemed premature. I don't know a soul who went with me on that except my partner in charitable-trust crime, Stephanie Link. Yet here we are a week later, after the swoon, wondering why -- other than it felt good to say "get out" -- did anyone bother to get out? Why did anyone say, "I am done with this market."
So let me put it out there: This kind of tape is precisely what happens when so many people turn negative at once. The data at that moment of negativity is so compelling that you can't think straight. It is almost always exactly the kind of un-rebuttable presumption stuff -- the Fed turning hawkish, Italy about to implode, Toll Brothers (TOL) is awful -- all of the reasons why we blew up last week. It causes you to panic now or regret it -- and that can really make you sick to your stomach.
Except you always regret it later. I know that. I just am willing to admit when I panicked so you don't repeat my ridiculous attempts to "feel right" or "feel better."
So at a quiet moment, with the market ticking up, the Fed proving there's no real change, Italy's 10-year bond yield below 5, Toll going back to its high, I say listen, do you want to do some selling now?
Be my guest.
