We cannot overlook the daily powerfully negative influence of Apple (AAPL) on this market. Apple represents retail, it represents the conundrum of value, and it represents the angst of the overall market.
As long as Apple goes down, it might just keep taking down the market if we lose the other plays, like Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG).
You need the "visibles" to go higher and you need the financials to go higher if you can beat back the selling. We don't have either yet right now.
But if we get something good to stabilize off the Bernanke testimony, then we can mount an advance.
I hate a tape that can go down on the ephemerals and the irrelevants. Sorry, I am not going to commit to the notion that Italy can bring us down. But when you have gasoline going wrong, and I have been adamant that we can't reverse that, we have the payroll tax holiday going wrong, and we have sequestration going wrong, housing alone --even terrific numbers from Home Depot (HD) and the Case-Shiller home-price index --will allow for a sustained advance.
Not saying we can't bounce right back. I predicated my whole show last night on the proposition that there is a better time to sell than in a selloff, and that we have it here for those who want to go. I am saying that Apple's going down alone can't hurt the rest of the market, as we know from the last few months, but the infection of Apple into the other names seems to be on the line here, and with that and the regional banks still not stabilizing, I think that it is prudent that those who didn't want to sell into the selloff should sell some now into the strength, especially because people will say, "Phew, we opened higher, went lower and then rallied again."
All of that talk, again, bothers me. We need a sustained advance in financials, we need to stop seeing Apple going down, we need to see the euro stabilize, and we need to see the commodities, including oil, just meander and not plunge, and then we can go higher. I am heartened that gold, which led the metals complex down, seems to have bottomed. But that's really about it when it comes to the industrial side of things.
Sure, the Dow is good, but watch that Nasdaq -- that's what I am worried about. So far, it has been right to worry.
