A Market Prone to Exaggeration

 | Feb 25, 2013 | 4:20 PM EST  | Comments
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tol

So are we linked again to Italy's fortunes?

For the moment, yes.

There were simply no buyers at all this afternoon, and we had a second run on the market when we heard that Boehner would speak.

I think that this rally and selloff are reminders that you still have to do the opposite of what the futures tell you to do.

To me, the downside seemed exaggerated and vicious and swift, and no one wanted to step in ahead of Boehner/Bernanke/Berlusconi.

Worries over the Three B's just couldn't be dealt with, and the reversal was pretty breathtaking.

The real takeaway is that after a period that was totally lacking in volatility, we are back into a moment when everything is exaggerated again, as we are trading without much stock news to go on, and when we get it, as we did today with Lowe's (LOW), the initial take of a pretty solid quarter was simply discarded, and a new take, that it was terrible, took its place.

To me, the quarter was fine, but the stock had run. But the decline was as exaggerated as the Toll Brothers (TOL) decline was.

The ultimate lesson? If you wanted to sell last week, you got a much higher price today at the opening, but it might turn out by the end of the day to be too late to sell, and the buy side might be better once again.

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