Nasdaq Hogging All the Excitement

 | Feb 06, 2012 | 6:00 AM EST
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Since we'll clearly never see another pullback again, I thought today we would just lay out a table comparing Wednesday's rally to Friday's.

First, let's address the performance in the S&P 500 and the NYSE.

S&P 500 and NYSE Data

Now, I grant you that I have been wrong in looking for a pullback, but if you take a look at this table, you'll see the gain in the S&P was greater Friday than it was Wednesday. Total floor volume and composite volume were higher on the NYSE Friday, which is bullish, and the net of floor volume (up volume minus down volume) was higher, as well. Yet there is no other category in which Friday's rally beat out Wednesday's. In short, we saw more volume and that was about it.

Now let's do the same exercise with the Nasdaq.

Nasdaq Data

The comparisons aren't nearly as poor here as they are for the NYSE.  If I wanted to pick on the Nasdaq I might note that net volume wasn't as high Friday as it was Wednesday. But, in general, all the pizzazz has been on Nasdaq. In fact, several weeks ago I noted that this index's high-low indicator was making higher highs, and it continues to do so.

High-Low Indicator -- Nasdaq

I suppose some might argue the pizzazz has all been in the small-caps, as the Russell 2000 has surged in recent weeks. In my view, the index started that rally just after it broke the trendline on the S&P-to-Russell ratio chart, which I've shown several times. Currently, the ratio is at 1.62. Last year it took a reading under 1.60 before the signs of topping appeared.

Yet, oddly enough, the Russell is still quite far away from its highs of last spring, while Nasdaq and the S&P are kissing theirs. Further, the Russell has now reached a resistance line for its first time.

Russell 2000 -- Daily

S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000

Two weeks ago the S&P reached its equivalent resistance line. Following that, it backed off less than 1% and then charged on through.

S&P 500 -- Daily

The Dow got to its resistance in early January, then simply milled around for two weeks before also eventually overcoming it.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -- Daily

On the sentiment front, I would continue to argue we're seeing some complacency, but no giddiness. I keep wondering if that giddiness will come when we see 90% of the volume on the upside.  It could either be that, or perhaps a reading of more than 55% bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey.

Finally, as a follow-up on the 10-year bond, the yield in fact bounce off the 1.80% area. Stock bears would note that rates are still lower than they were just a week or so ago, when bond yields were up near 2.10% -- and I wouldn't argue with that. But I can tell you that a move up through the 2.10%-to-2.20% area would be a breakout, and even non-technicians would have to concur.

10-Year Treasury Bond -- Daily


Overbought/Oversold Oscillator -- NYSE

Overbought/Oversold Oscillator -- Nasdaq

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