Not Ringing the Alarm Bells

 | Feb 04, 2013 | 6:13 PM EST  | Comments
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Can you really get a huge selloff based on some potential upheaval in Spain and Italy? I have always regarded the diminution of the European situation as a simmering negative, meaning that it could always grow back in size. But in the interim there has been enough good here that I am not quaking in my boots, and I'm looking for things to buy.

Here's my thinking. Look at what worked today. Netflix (NFLX) should have been dinged no matter what. I mean the darned thing has been up 100 straight points. Humana (HUM) shouldn't have been able to run like it did on a quarter that was added by one-time issues like the flu. FedEx (FDX) rallies on a upgrade? Sprint Nextel (S), Dean Foods (DF), all move up nicely after being challenged lately? Marathon Oil (MRO), a refiner that has gone up endlessly, goes up again?

You shouldn't be able to have any rallies of this sort if we are really in a bad way.

I believe we will know rather quickly if the damage in Europe is running its course. We just need to follow Banco Santander (SAN), the Spanish bank that has been the bellwether the whole time that Europe has been ailing and healing.

I'm watching McGraw-Hill (MHP) and Yum! Brands (YUM) to see how horribly horrible news is taken. I think that McGraw-Hill will beat any rap that the Justice Department throws at it.

Yum? We will just have to wait and listen. 

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