Pressure Under the Surface

 | Jan 23, 2013 | 10:42 AM EST
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Strength in Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM) and Apple (AAPL) is covering up mixed action under the surface. Breadth is running negative and small-caps, which have been leading lately, are lagging. There isn't a rush for the exits, but there is some profit taking.

Even the bulls are starting to talk about this rally becoming a bit long in the tooth. Rallies in the last year have averaged about 10 weeks. One of my favorite indicators is T2108 from Worden Brothers. It shows the percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving averages. It is hitting 85 right now, which is the highest level since last January.

It isn't difficult to find bearish indicators like that to worry about, but, as I've been writing lately, I want to see weak price action before I become more pessimistic. The market has consistently come back from shaky opens to close strong; until that pattern changes, I'll keep a positive bias.

I've been a net seller this morning as some of the thinner stocks I'm holding pull back. I flipped Facebook (FB), which I mentioned yesterday, and I am staying patient to see how things develop. There is pressure under the surface, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the market turn down after a great earnings reports.

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volatility is quite low here, and we could see some downsides here in the short term. ...



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