China Is Lurking

 | Jan 09, 2014 | 10:53 AM EST  | Comments
  • Comment
  • Print Print
  • Print
Stock quotes in this article:

vale

,

nat

,

cat

You want my biggest worry? China.

We are seeing degradation in the Baltic Freight Index to the point that it's tough to watch. We have seen a decline in copper. We get government numbers that aren't so hot and auto numbers that are cooling, and none of it is good news. Vale (VALE) has been a hideous underperformer for the Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust and it, too, is connected to China via iron ore.

Now, let's put it in context. This stock rally is a U.S.-led one. The emerging markets have been horrendous. Europe's coming back in fits and starts. China's been intermittent, but the market is strongest when China is in a positive part of the cycle.

The only reason I endeavor to point this out is that the weakness in the stock market is pervasive enough that you have to break out the list of real concerns, and this is the top one.

Now, the day rates for oil tankers are up nicely -- funny, the Nordic American Tankers (NAT) downgrade by Maxim Group seems wrong-headed to me. Further, the U.S. companies that deal with China, Caterpillar (CAT) excluded, are not singing a downbeat tune.

But I am conscious that China is lurking. Unless we start seeing some better commodity numbers -- and I am not even included the plummeting in West Texas Intermediate crude, because that's heavily domestic -- the market will not be able to advance with any alacrity.

Columnist Conversations

LNKD is trading $226.08, up 3.1% with IV30™ up 0.4%. This is a stock price and volatility note on a so...
From Moody's: "Dynegy announced that it expects to finance the transaction with $5 billion of unsecured notes ...
Kohl's is beginning to lose its upside momentum this week. The stock has been in hyper drive since the ...
Market is roughly flat at midday as equities try to make it five straight days of gains for the week. SeaWorld...

BEST IDEAS

REAL MONEY'S BEST IDEAS

Columnist Tweets

BROKERAGE PARTNERS

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.


TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.