Tracing the Market's Short-Term Themes

 | Jan 08, 2013 | 12:36 PM EST  | Comments
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mon

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yum

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tgt

Don't you just hate reality? Don't you hate when you know that numbers are too high or guidance is too high or that the world is not yet in a place where you are confident that things are OK?

Don't you just hate that some of the Fed thinks that things are already in that great place?

Don't you just hate that Washington doesn't even care what place we are in and thinks that those who want to make money in the stock market are carrion?

Don't you just hate price wars for the consumer like Target (TGT) is giving you and the dollar stores have given you?

Don't you just hate the fact that the karma from the beginning of the year was just karma, and now we are stuck with a less-than-kismet reality?

I know I do.

I am a believer in themes. I have been tracing them out to you. You know why I am doing that? Because I expect the market to go down, and I don't want to fear that. I know that we have rallied too much compared with the fundamentals, and now the fundamentals have to catch up and do so in a quicker way than they can.

Plus, it isn't like there are bumps out there. A Dreamliner catches fire. There aren't as many Chinese orders as the purchasing manager's index says there should be. The price of aluminum may not have tightened.

You get suckered in. Who the heck would have thought that Monsanto (MON) could deliver what it did? But you know better than to come in later.

You get snookered. Did Yum! Brands (YUM) not know how bad things were?

In the end, we are at a moment where we have to do some selling so we can do some buying -- and that's the plan right now for Action Alerts PLUS. You hate taking profits at the beginning of the year. You want your winners to run.

But if they are almost all winners, then you know there will be losers, and you have to get out ahead of that.

Which is the plan right now. Get in shape to buy the themes.

The themes are coming in, along with everything else for that matter, and those that haven't yet sure seem like they are about to.

Oh, and one more. Don't you just hate earnings season? I know I sure do.

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